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Blog #1
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I had some hopes for the coalition when
it was formed, largely for two reasons: Government spends a great deal of
money and wastes a large proportion of it. Cuts are always delivered in
crisis conditions, so the cuts are invariably unintelligent. A government
pledged to cut government expenditure over a five year period had an
opportunity to actually cut budgets more intelligently. My second hope was
that the presence of the Liberals would curb Tory excesses. While my first
hope has been entirely forlorn, I do think the second has been vindicated.
Even in this past few days, Clegg has been the restraining voice, helping to
hold back the government from committing to unreasonable policies.
Clegg, however has been an enormous disappointment.
Leaving aside his betrayal of the student vote – for which he will
never be forgiven – he has squandered his opportunities on the wrong
policies and fought them in the wrong ways. Liberal successes include the
raising of the tax-free bands and the pupil supplement – much appreciated
by schools, but the referendum on the worst type of proportional
representation was inept and his attempts to reform the House of Lords a
farce. A better leader could have come to the country now with a far stronger
case.
But where does this leave us? I cannot
forget how angry I was with New Labour at the last election. They had
governed over an appalling and mistaken war in the Middle East, presided over
a period of unparalleled increase in inequality, sold human rights down the
river of terrorist paranoia, doubled the number of prisoners in custody, created
a high-stakes testing/inspection culture in education and made the state a surrogate
parent to us all.
Given all that, where can we most safely
put our vote next May? I have drawn up a short list of what I consider to be
the most important policy areas, and made a few comments about the three main
parties. But there is still some time to go – do you agree with my analysis?
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Policy
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Party positions
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My thoughts
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The Economy
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Conservative: More cuts, aimed at the least
well off except when there is a PR breakdown.
Liberals: As above, but more cuts aimed at the
wealthy
Labour: Hard to tell, but probably same as
Tories.
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In many ways the coalition has done its job.
The recovery may not be the one they wanted – there has been no
rebalancing of the economy or rebuilding of manufacturing – but the
graphs are moving in the right directions and we have progressed from the
dire position of 2010. Under Ed Balls, Labour have simply attacked
coalition policies without ever suggesting alternatives. Labour clearly
think that families in the top 10% of the income bracket are worthy of
support (re: Child Support Allowance) and as far as I can see have financial
targets which include just as much in the way of cuts as the Tories. Milliband’s identification of the ‘Cost of
living crisis’ was good politics – but the other side is to
convince people you can solve that crisis.
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Foreign policy
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Conservative: They have no foreign policy.
Labour: Nor do they.
Lib-dems: No. But
they do have Paddy Ashdown who might talk some sense from time to time.
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My personal belief is that there is little we
can do positively in the major trouble-areas of the world by ourselves, but
that the time has surely come to have a foreign policy, something that we
haven’t had since Tony Blair derailed sense and logic over a decade
ago. Do we support Shia, Suni or Christians in
the Middle East? (Did we have a view on Assad’s enemies threatening
to wipe out the Christian communities?) Dictatorships or democracies?
(Mubarak, the Muslim League or the Egyptian army?) Pragmatic leadership or
morally better options? I haven’t a clue, but more importantly, nor
does the Foreign Office.
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Europe
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Conservative: ‘Renegotiate’ terms
of the EU treaty then hold a referendum within 2 years.
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This policy makes the Tories, for me at least,
unelectable. If they are returned we will have two years when nothing will
happen to the economy – the prospect of the vote will probably stall
the recovery and lead to an increase in unemployment as the large employers
look to pull out. The Government will be completely split between different
groups wanting differing amounts of independence from the EU and the
government will almost certainly fall after the result, whichever way it
goes! The old Tory obsession with Europe is not shared by the population as
a whole and they need to get over it.
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Scottish
independence
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No idea for any of them
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You can see my thoughts on this in Blog 18. If the vote goes for YES in a week or
two’s time, the most important item on the agenda of the new
government will be a negotiating position with the newly independent state
of Scotland. Unfortunately, none of the parties seems to think we should
know what their policy is. Even a no vote should lead to some serious
thinking about how the English and their regions can be more fairly treated
by Westminster.
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Health
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Conservative: Keep the NHS free at the point of
delivery, but use private companies to outsource as much as possible.
Labour: Keep the NHS free at the point of
delivery, but use private companies to outsource as much as possible.
Lib-dems: Keep the
NHS free at the point of delivery, but use private companies to outsource
as much as possible.
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I saw a really bizarre interview with Andy
Burnham recently. He poured scorn on the government for privatising the NHS
(by which he meant outsourcing elements to private companies). It was
pointed out that when he was Secretary of State for Health, he had done
even more ‘privatising’ than the coalition. He explained that
his ‘privatising’ was good, but theirs was bad. So that is all
clear then. Again, the serious issue is entirely different. The NHS cannot
forever do everything for everybody for no fee unless we increase taxes to
an untenable level. The NHS needs to be better tailored to reality. Will
any party tell us that this is the case and have a policy to make it
happen? Or will we just blunder on till it collapses in a terrible mess?
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Education
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Conservative: Continued academies, support for
Free Schools, continued interference with the exam system and undermining
of teachers’ role.
Labour: As above, though they may go against
Free schools.
Lib-dems: As above
but with free school dinners.
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Once again, Labour wins here for me. The
appalling Gove has gone, but not his legacy and Tristram
Hunt seems a good bloke. But his trump card is that Labour has promised not
to de-aggregate AS levels, the current Tory policy. This policy is due to
cause chaos in every sixth form in the land and is hated by universities
just as much. Probably worth holding your nose and voting Labour for this
alone.
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Prisons
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Conservatives: Lock up more people for longer
and in worse conditions. Privatise if possible and outsource what we can to private companies.
Labour Lock up even more people than the Tories
and keep them in for even longer. We will let them have library books
however. Privatise if possible and outsource what we can to private
companies.
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Bring back Ken Clark! He is the only Home
secretary of the past 20 years who actually started to reform the prisons
in a logical and sensible way. I see no hope from any of the parties on
this one.
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