The Scottish
elephant in the Westminster room
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It seems to me
that most of us south of the border are only gradually recognising the
phenomenal importance of the Scottish referendum which is now just weeks away.
Few Londoners seem have got beyond the traditional ribald responses (there
are several, all demeaning to the Scots of course) and really started to
think things through. That the serious media (if we have any left) and political
parties have failed to provide a serious analysis is extraordinary and
lamentable, as they concentrate on the cut and thrust of popular appeal
rather than the substantive impact the decision will have on the population
as a whole. I think the referendum result will have a major impact on the next
election – and could be the most important single issue – and yet
our leaders have breathed not a word about their post-referendum policies. A YES vote
will mean huge decisions for a new UK (or whatever we all it) government. The
negotiating stance would be a crucial issue to address, not to mention the
status of Scottish MPs elected in May 2015. Are we to assume Labour, Tory and
Lib Dem policies on approaching these negotiations will be identical? It
seems unlikely to me; rather it look like a huge can of worms and then some. Then there is
the Tory obsession with leaving Europe. Leaving the EU and being confident of
holding our own as the European nation with the second highest GDP is one
thing; but lose Scotland and leave the EU in the same timeframe? This seems
to me a different proposition altogether. I personally can’t see how
the Tory promise on delivering a referendum on the EU could be meaningfully
enacted if Scotland vote to leave the Union. Imagine an independent Scotland
being able to stay in the EU as the rest of the UK plans to pull out.... Do we really
know what the Labour and Tory policies are on Defence in the reduced UK? Energy
policy (without Scottish oil, surely fracking becomes a necessity), fishing
and food policies and what is the status of Scots in the UK rump if they are
not in the EU? Benefits, costs of education the NHS? And if
Scotland does leave the Union, what about local democracy in England? Wales
and Northern Ireland will have independent legislatures outside of
Westminster, and to some extent so will London, leaving a huge gap in
democratic accountability in the rest of England. But even with a NO vote,
this democratic deficiency will be hard to put to bed again. Given that the
Scots will inevitably have an enhanced local settlement, the argument for a
federal structure, with government located in the four countries (and
possibly London as well) with Westminster given a purely UK wide focus surely
has the force at this point? The result of
the Scottish referendum will affect the rest of the UK in terms of its
relationship with the Europe & NATO, its economy, its local democracy
and, quite frankly hundreds of other issues. While the political classes
simply hope it never happens, I think there will be implications even after a
NO vote. With less than a year now to the UK General elections, I would like
to see some recognition from the Westminster parties that the Scots matter
and the votes will affect the next Westminster election in many ways. Quite
how they can continue to talk about the May 2015 election without ever
referring to the Scots is a total mystery to me. |
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Blog #18 |
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If
you would like to comment on any of these Blog pieces please email me on: bjc@briancreese.co.uk